Tag: Toby Ord
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Getting it right (Part 1: Altruism)
Effective altruists often show admirable degrees of altruism.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 13: Ord on Biorisk)
Toby Ord suggests that humanity faces a 3% risk of existential catastrophe from biological causes in the next 100 years. I review Ord’s arguments and argue that they are insufficient to ground this estimate.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 5: Climate wrap-up)
In a last look at climate risk, I examine two final mechanisms by which climate change could lead to existential catastrophe: moist and runaway greenhouse effects, and interstate conflict. Then I draw lessons from the discussion of climate risk in Parts 2-5 of this series.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 4: Halstead continued)
I continue to make the case that estimates of existential risk from climate change have been exaggerated, looking deeper into the Halstead report discussed in Part 3 of this series.
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Existential risk pessimism and the time of perils (Part 6: Wisdom)
So far, we considered two arguments for the Time of Perils Hypothesis: an appeal to space settlement and an existential risk Kuznets curve. In this post, I look at a third argument, which appeals to wisdom.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 3: Climate change, lessons from Halstead)
I continue to make the case that estimates of existential risk from climate change have been exaggerated, drawing on a new report about climate risk by John Halstead.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 2: Ord on climate risk)
Toby Ord predicts a one in a thousand chance that climate change will lead by 2100 to irreversible existential catastrophe. But what does the evidence say? Here we begin to get a different story.