Tag: Forecasting
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If anyone builds it, everyone dies (Part 3: Remaining arguments for misalignment)
This post addresses the second of Yudkowsky and Soares’ two main arguments for misalignment in Chapter 4.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 22: AI 2027 recap)
This post draws lessons from our discussion of the AI 2027 report.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 20: AI 2027 timelines forecast, benchmarks and gaps)
The second part of the AI 2027 timelines model relies primarily on insufficiently evidenced forecasts.
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The scope of longtermism (Part 3: Washing out)
Washing out occurs when there is significant cancellation between possible positive and negative consequences of our actions when taking expectations.
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Exaggerating the risks (Part 14: MacAskill on biorisk)
I review Wlil MacAskill’s arguments in What we owe the future for high levels of existential biorisk. I argue that they are insufficient.